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MEDITERRANEAN
SEA FORECAST BULLETIN
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MEDITERRANEAN
SEA MONTHLY BULLETIN
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MONTHLY ANIMATION |
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| Overview
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The basin scale forecasting
in the Mediterranean Sea has started in January 2000 and it
is continuing since then. The system is functioning with a
weekly analysis cycle and a weekly ten days forecast cycle.
It uses SLA from satellite and VOS-XBT data that were collected
in NRT. The model used is an OGCM at 1/8 x 1/8 degrees and
31 levels which is eddy permitting but not eddy resolving in
many areas of the Mediterranean. The assimilation scheme has
been implemented in a multivariate smoother and filter mode.
Analysis of forecast skill scores showed that:
1) Upper mixed layer temperature root mean square (rms) forecast
error was always below 0.7° C for the ten forecasting days
and the rms persistence error was always larger than forecast error;
2) Sea level rms misfit was, on a six months average, about 6 cm
and periods of higher misfit
errors could be found where the model was enable to capture rapid
changes in the upper
thermocline structure occurring during summer;
3) The rms temperature error in the deep layers was lower than
0.1-0.2° C for all ten forecasting days.
To our knowledge, MFSTEP Project operational analysis and forecasting
system is unique in the world since it combines satellite SLA and
in situ data operationally and provides weekly forecasts for a
regional basin. The major aim of this workpackage is the improvement
of the analysis/forecast system in order to continue the forecasting
activities, introduce the assimilation of ARGO data, and provide
the lateral boundary conditions fields for forecasting at the regional/shelf
scale.
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Objectives
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This package will:
1) further develop and improve the existing system for operational
forecast at basin scale. The improvement will include set up of
a high-resolution OGCM, the implementation of the OI-MARK III data
assimilation scheme and the assimilation of ARGO profile data.
2) produce operational forecasts every week for ten days with the
new system during TOP period.
3) develop the procedures to disseminate in NRT the analysis and
forecast fields in order to start the regional/shelf scale forecasts.
General description of deliverables
1) New basin scale forecasting OGCM at 1/16 o x 1/16o resolution,
large Atlantic box domain, 61 levels (so-called MFSTEP-OGCM);
2) Implementation of OI-MARK III assimilation scheme developed and
tested in WP7 for the TOP analysis/forecast cycle;
3) NRT weekly forecasts during TOP (so-called MFSTEP forecasts) with
assimilation of SLA, SST and VOS-XBT;
4) NRT weekly forecasts during TOP (so-called MFSTEP forecasts) with
assimilation of SLA, SST, VOS-XBT and ARGO T-S profiles;
5) Dissemination of MFSTEP forecast and analysis fields to WP9;
6) Dissemination and exploitation of MFSTEP forecasts on the Web
for the large user community of WP13. |
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